In the absence of a good crystal ball to tell us the exact future price for your home, we need to use a different approach.
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Chapter 2 - It Is A Good Time To Sell And Why Would I Sell?
Let me break the answer to this in two sections.
The first one, the “It Is A Good Time To Sell” is tricky. Usually people can judge the quality of their past decisions easily, because we can look backwards, check the decision they took, and evaluate its present consequences. To assess the impact of a current decision we need to go into the future, and this is the realm of speculations, probabilities, or psychic activities. Since my 8-ball is broken and I cannot tell you the price of your home in 6 or 12 months, we have to look at other available tools, and try to discern some future patterns.
A needed disclaimer: Everything written here and expressed in the video below is merely my OPINION. It is not guaranteed to be factual correct and there is no guarantee it is a full and complete analysis. I am neither licensed into judging the financials of the future, nor a magician able to guess it 🙂
Just a quick and dirty analysis … let’s have a look at the following image. It’s the graph of two indicators that you can find on FED’s website (source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ visited on May 12th 2023). I superposed two indicators … the Federal Funds Effective Rate (which in my opinion it is a strong lead indicator, trying to adapt the vision of the FED into shaping the future, quarter by quarter – you can find more on this subject on https:// www.investopedia.com /terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) – and the House Price Index on Florida Homes. Based on a very brief analysis I can somehow discern a peculiar similarity with the situation that developed back in 2008. There are a lot of macro-economic explanations for what happened then (NINJA credits, everyone and their dog being an investor, people buying homes with 0% down, low equity in the home value, etc) and there is a shared expectation that this kind of event will not happen again … or will it?
Can anyone 100% tell you the exact future market value of your home (let’s assume currently $480,000) in two or three quarters? Absolutely not! Can it be $520,000 based on the last year’s evolution, and on the major trends we see in the buyer’s and seller’s behavior? For sure! Can it drop, like in 2009 towards 50%-60% of its current value, and park somewhere in the $290,000 area? Absolutely!
So, what’s the meaning of this macro-economic mumbo jumbo for YOU and YOUR home. Well, I truly believe that taking a decision by trying to guess the future value of your home is like going in Vegas with the hope to make money. If you had a lucky bet (meaning you don’t sell now, hoping the appreciation will continue, and it does) you might win. And if you put a bet on the black and it comes out red (meaning you don’t sell now, and in a couple of weeks/months we are in a deep recession, buyers are afraid and not buying anymore, rates are still high, cash becomes the king again, etc.) then guess what … you lost on your bet.
I want to offer just a little bit of a different perspective. Maybe the right questions to ask yourself would be: do I feel comfortable to gamble maybe the most important asset that I have in my life on the hope that everything will appreciate in 6, 12 or 24 months? Do I feel comfortable to cash-out my equity that is locked into my home (that appreciated A LOT within the last years) and use it for an lifestyle change? Do I have a vivid desire to move out? Do I have a better plan, either to get a bigger, or a smaller home, or just a different home?
And here comes the second part, or the second question – the “Why Should I Sell?”. I don’t know why you would contemplate the idea of selling your home, but I can share with you the main reasons that are in the mind of other sellers.
Maybe the most important one is a change in personal circumstances. As people go through various life stages, their housing needs may change. Growing families often seek larger homes with more space and better amenities. Conversely, empty nesters or retirees may downsize to smaller, more manageable properties. Additionally, changes in employment or job relocation can necessitate selling a home and moving to a different area for convenience or career advancement.
Financial considerations also play a significant role. People may sell their homes to leverage the equity and invest in other ventures or upgrade to a more desirable property. Economic factors such as a booming real estate market or favorable interest rates may also encourage sellers to sell and capitalize on the market conditions.
Furthermore, personal relationships can impact a decision to sell and move out. People may relocate to be closer to family members or loved ones, seeking a stronger support network or simply to foster closer bonds. Another primary factor is the need for change. Human beings are inherently adaptable and constantly seeking new experiences and environments. Some people sell their homes and move out to explore different neighborhoods, cities, or even countries, in pursuit of a fresh start and a new chapter in their lives. The desire for novelty and the urge to explore different cultures and environments can be strong motivators for such decisions.